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Economics

The Sentiment Virus

After a strong 2019, 2020 appeared to be a promising year.  Unemployment was at a record low, and wages were growing at a faster pace than almost any other time during the decade long economic expansion.  Interest rates were low, consumer credit showed little signs of stress, and the consumer was financially healthy.  2020 was … Continue reading The Sentiment Virus

The Great Normalization

Over the past 20 years, a series of events starting with the bursting of the internet bubble led to the unprecedented environment we find ourselves in today.  We started with “The Great Internet Bubble” followed by “The Great Housing Bubble” then “The Great Credit Bubble” then “The Great Commodities Bubble,” resulting in “The Great Recession,” … Continue reading The Great Normalization

Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?

Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. Since 2006, the only inversions investors studied were inversions involving multi-national companies relocating their headquarters and legal residence to countries with lower tax rates.  In January and then again in March, the word inversion meant something else for the first time in 13 years.  In … Continue reading Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?

Are We In A Trade War?

Towards the end of the first quarter, the U.S. slapped tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines. At first it was on all countries. Then several countries were exempted. China was not exempt and responded by putting tariffs on wine and pork. Then, the U.S. announced further tariffs on a variety of … Continue reading Are We In A Trade War?

“The Merry Minuet”

The cold war era song by the Kingston Trio “The Merry Minuet”1 was first performed in San Francisco at the hungry i nightclub almost 60 years ago. It started like this: “…There’s hurricanes in Florida…” and it ended with thoughts about the atomic bomb. “…What nature doesn’t do to us will be done by our … Continue reading “The Merry Minuet”

Wealth Effect

The first quarter started off with a bang…a new president with new policies and a raise in the interest rates with promises of more to come.  On top of that we had the continuation of the “Trump rally” which has pulled the stock market up 14% since the election.  Driving the market was talk of … Continue reading Wealth Effect