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Stagflation Redux?  

Are we poised to relive the economic malaise of the 1970s and early-1980s? Inflation emerged as the primary concern for the markets during the second quarter. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 8.6% in May, putting to rest any remaining hope that the inflationary pressures of the past year were “transitory.” While there are parallels … Continue reading Stagflation Redux?  

Friend or Foe?

Changing the way investors look at volatility from “risk” to “opportunity” can be the most powerful tool investors can utilize to combat turbulent times. 2021 was one of the better years on record for financial markets. Aside from fixed income, all asset classes delivered positive returns and three – U.S. Equities, Natural Resources and Real … Continue reading Friend or Foe?

Mid-Cycle: Keep Calm and Carry On

What might monetary tightening bring for markets? Markets have navigated the recovery phase of the economic cycle supported by monetary and fiscal authorities who have injected record levels of liquidity into the financial system. That’s changing. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates in 2022, to help fight inflation, while U.S. fiscal policy … Continue reading Mid-Cycle: Keep Calm and Carry On

Quantitative Easing, Tapering, Liftoff, and Rolloff

What Does It All Mean? The primary monetary policy tool for central banks is setting the level of short-term interest rates.  For the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), this means adjusting short-term interest rates to support its dual mandate of price stability (controlling inflation) and maximum sustainable employment.  However, once short-term interest rates are set near-zero, … Continue reading Quantitative Easing, Tapering, Liftoff, and Rolloff

Which Flation Is In Our Future?

How have our portfolios defended against recent inflation?  Is inflation or disinflation in our future? Recent inflation headlines have been startling: “Lumber prices spike to an all-time high,” “Oil prices double over the past year,” “Copper hits a 20-year high”.  These quotes have caused many to believe a new cycle of rising inflation is upon … Continue reading Which Flation Is In Our Future?

Let’s Get Fiscal

The equity market is not the only thing hitting an all-time high. US federal debt held by the public ended 2020 at $21 trillion, up from $9 trillion at the end of 2010. The Congressional Budget Office’s baseline projection for federal debt released in February 2021 incorporated the major Coronavirus-related relief bills – the $2 … Continue reading Let’s Get Fiscal

Democrats Take Georgia

On January 5th, 2021, Democrats unexpectedly swept the Georgia Senate runoffs, securing the Senate majority for the Democrats and returning unified Democrat control to Washington for the first time since the first two years of the Obama administration. Despite indications that the race was narrowing, the market had expected Republicans to maintain Senate control. There … Continue reading Democrats Take Georgia

Managing Portfolios During the Most Unique Election of Our Time

We examine four possible Presidential election outcomes and the effect on our portfolios. Every four years, as the presidential election approaches, there is typically a certain level of anxiety investors feel.  The anxiety revolves around the uncertainty inherent with any election.  The usual worries being:  Who will win?  What will be the agenda for the … Continue reading Managing Portfolios During the Most Unique Election of Our Time