After a strong 2019, 2020 appeared to be a promising year. Unemployment was at a record low, and wages were growing at a faster pace than almost any other time during the decade long economic expansion. Interest rates were low, consumer credit showed little signs of stress, and the consumer was financially healthy. 2020 was … Continue reading The Sentiment Virus
Market Impact: The S&P 500 closed the week of February 28 down 13% from its high. This may seem like a rude reminder that downside volatility exists in the market, after hitting an all-time high only a week before. But since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a 10% correction, on average, every eighteen months, … Continue reading Coronavirus: Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Over the past 20 years, a series of events starting with the bursting of the internet bubble led to the unprecedented environment we find ourselves in today. We started with “The Great Internet Bubble” followed by “The Great Housing Bubble” then “The Great Credit Bubble” then “The Great Commodities Bubble,” resulting in “The Great Recession,” … Continue reading The Great Normalization
In life and in economic cycles, there are key milestones. A key one for the economy was hit August 14, 2019: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was less than 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. In other words, the yield curve “inverted.” The inversion that day was brief and slight, as the 2-year yield was barely above … Continue reading OPCM’s Thoughts on Yield Curve Inversion
Click here to view a PRINT VERSION of this article. We have long known that 2019 held the potential to be somewhat of an IPO extravaganza – a year in which some of the largest private companies, many located in the Bay Area, were set to go public. Some of the most high profile companies … Continue reading IPO: It’s Probably Overpriced?
Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. Since 2006, the only inversions investors studied were inversions involving multi-national companies relocating their headquarters and legal residence to countries with lower tax rates. In January and then again in March, the word inversion meant something else for the first time in 13 years. In … Continue reading Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?
A market saying is to “sell the news”, implying that by the time news is released, it is already priced into an asset’s price. Exhibit A: On January 24, 2018, a prominent media outlet hyped a headline touting, “The stock market is off to its best start in 31 years and that bodes well for … Continue reading Sell the News – The US Dollar and Multi-Asset Class Investing
Towards the end of the first quarter, the U.S. slapped tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines. At first it was on all countries. Then several countries were exempted. China was not exempt and responded by putting tariffs on wine and pork. Then, the U.S. announced further tariffs on a variety of … Continue reading Are We In A Trade War?
The cold war era song by the Kingston Trio “The Merry Minuet”1 was first performed in San Francisco at the hungry i nightclub almost 60 years ago. It started like this: “…There’s hurricanes in Florida…” and it ended with thoughts about the atomic bomb. “…What nature doesn’t do to us will be done by our … Continue reading “The Merry Minuet”
The first quarter started off with a bang…a new president with new policies and a raise in the interest rates with promises of more to come. On top of that we had the continuation of the “Trump rally” which has pulled the stock market up 14% since the election. Driving the market was talk of … Continue reading Wealth Effect
