What Does It All Mean? The primary monetary policy tool for central banks is setting the level of short-term interest rates. For the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), this means adjusting short-term interest rates to support its dual mandate of price stability (controlling inflation) and maximum sustainable employment. However, once short-term interest rates are set near-zero, … Continue reading Quantitative Easing, Tapering, Liftoff, and Rolloff
How have our portfolios defended against recent inflation? Is inflation or disinflation in our future? Recent inflation headlines have been startling: “Lumber prices spike to an all-time high,” “Oil prices double over the past year,” “Copper hits a 20-year high”. These quotes have caused many to believe a new cycle of rising inflation is upon … Continue reading Which Flation Is In Our Future?
The equity market is not the only thing hitting an all-time high. US federal debt held by the public ended 2020 at $21 trillion, up from $9 trillion at the end of 2010. The Congressional Budget Office’s baseline projection for federal debt released in February 2021 incorporated the major Coronavirus-related relief bills – the $2 … Continue reading Let’s Get Fiscal
The remarkable rise and fall of GameStop (GME), a distressed video game retailer, has been nothing short of extraordinary. Echoing the speculative flurry of past bubbles, GameStop rallied from under $20 a share on January 12th to an intraday high of $483 on January 27th – a gain of over 2,300% in just ten trading … Continue reading GameStop: To the Moon … and back
On January 5th, 2021, Democrats unexpectedly swept the Georgia Senate runoffs, securing the Senate majority for the Democrats and returning unified Democrat control to Washington for the first time since the first two years of the Obama administration. Despite indications that the race was narrowing, the market had expected Republicans to maintain Senate control. There … Continue reading Democrats Take Georgia
We examine four possible Presidential election outcomes and the effect on our portfolios. Every four years, as the presidential election approaches, there is typically a certain level of anxiety investors feel. The anxiety revolves around the uncertainty inherent with any election. The usual worries being: Who will win? What will be the agenda for the … Continue reading Managing Portfolios During the Most Unique Election of Our Time
In this article we examine the interplay of markets, the economy, and volatility. Layoffs. Bankruptcies. Vacancies. Despite persistent negative economic news, financial markets have rallied. This disconnect can cause confusion. How can these two dynamics take place at the same time? Confusion can lead to fear. In fact, one measure of individual investors’ fear of … Continue reading Early Cycle: Disconnects and Volatility
Regardless of who wins the presidential election, tax rates are likely to increase. The election in November may prove to be one of the most consequential in modern history. With all of the problems we currently face – the pandemic and resulting economic recession, social unrest and the national discussion on long-festering racial tensions, the … Continue reading Election 2020: Where Do We Go from Here?
After years of strength, is the U.S. dollar poised for a fall? The U.S. dollar has been in a sustained uptrend over the past decade, contributing to persistent underperformance across numerous asset classes but most acutely affecting both foreign equities and natural resources.1 Given the U.S. dollar’s position as the global reserve currency, there are … Continue reading U.S. Dollar: What Goes Up, Must Come Down?
After a strong 2019, 2020 appeared to be a promising year. Unemployment was at a record low, and wages were growing at a faster pace than almost any other time during the decade long economic expansion. Interest rates were low, consumer credit showed little signs of stress, and the consumer was financially healthy. 2020 was … Continue reading The Sentiment Virus
