As 2020 begins, the year may change, but human nature does not. Humans evolve and refine their thinking, yet common cognitive biases remain. This is especially true when markets are near lows or, as the new decade begins, near highs. We believe enhancing awareness of these biases can improve long-term portfolio performance. So let’s take … Continue reading FOMO – Battling Biases in 2020 and Beyond
Signs of economic weakness are pervasive. Quantitative evidence from economic reports is depicting an obvious economic slowdown. Additionally, qualitative evidence, such as “expert” commentary and recession related media headlines, means the average American hears about an upcoming recession daily. After reading the headlines of poor economic reports and bearish commentary, one would expect equity markets … Continue reading The Bull Stock Market in the Bear Economy
Click here to view a PRINT VERSION of this article. Historically, two sectors with consistently slow earnings growth have been utilities and consumer staples. Over the long-term, these two sectors have posted annualized earnings growth of 3% and 5% respectively, below the S&P 500’s 7% earnings growth. Although earnings growth has been slower, and these … Continue reading Safe Is Not Safe Anymore
The old saying “stock prices follow earnings” was not in effect during 2018. The S&P 500 delivered outstanding earnings growth of 22% during the year. However, this impressive earnings growth coincided with the worst performance for the S&P 500 in over 10 years, along with one of the worst single quarters since 1940. Practically overnight, … Continue reading What Does the Recent US Stock Market Action Mean for 2019?
To download a printable version of this article, click here: 201810 OPCM – Marijuana Around this time last year, we wrote an article highlighting the increasing signs of speculation and euphoria we were seeing in the burgeoning cryptocurrency market. Our skepticism had less to do with the merit or potential use of cryptocurrencies, and more … Continue reading Seeing Green?
To download a printable version of this article: 201810 OPCM – The Risk Of Investing In One Asset Class For many decades, the best risk-adjusted returns were found using a multi-asset class investing approach. Historically this discipline, used by most of the top performing large foundations and endowments, enabled investors to achieve equity-like returns with … Continue reading The Risk Of Investing In One Asset Class
To download a printable version of this article: 201810 OPCM – Foreign Currency Conundrum On August 13th, 2018 a headline in the International Business Times read, “Turkey facing currency meltdown and credit crunch fears”. The “meltdown” the article was referencing was a three day, 30% decline in the value of Turkey’s currency, the Lira. Normally, … Continue reading Foreign Currency Conundrum
Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks for the past eleven years in nearly a straight line. Most investors are now dramatically overweight growth stocks and growth sectors like technology,communications, healthcare, and consumer discretionary. Recently our investment team is now finding a record number of potential new investments that are labeled value stocks. In this article … Continue reading The Overcrowded Growth Trade
We are pleased that a number of new clients have chosen to work with OPCM in 2018. As we analyze new client and prospective client portfolios, a common theme appears in these portfolios – the combination of very high exposure to U.S. stocks, and an overall lack of diversity. It is easy to understand why … Continue reading The Tails To Heads Flip In U.S. Stocks
Times change, but thankfully for longer term investors, short-sighted fear and greed in the financial markets remain the same. 2017 was the best year for emerging market (EM) equity returns since 2009. EM was up 37%, beating domestic equities for the first time in five years. During 2017, the worst peak-to-trough decline was 5%, the … Continue reading Emerging Opportunities
