Over the past 20 years, a series of events starting with the bursting of the internet bubble led to the unprecedented environment we find ourselves in today. We started with “The Great Internet Bubble” followed by “The Great Housing Bubble” then “The Great Credit Bubble” then “The Great Commodities Bubble,” resulting in “The Great Recession,” … Continue reading The Great Normalization
As 2020 begins, the year may change, but human nature does not. Humans evolve and refine their thinking, yet common cognitive biases remain. This is especially true when markets are near lows or, as the new decade begins, near highs. We believe enhancing awareness of these biases can improve long-term portfolio performance. So let’s take … Continue reading FOMO – Battling Biases in 2020 and Beyond
In 2019, credit markets exhibited a high level of volatility due to a number of factors. Overall, our fixed income benchmark, the Barclays Aggregate Intermediate-Term Index, provided a total return of 6.8% for the year, with corporate and junk bonds leading the charge with double-digit returns. The majority of our clients are invested in tax-free … Continue reading The Long and the Short of It
Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) have been modified many times since their introduction forty-six years ago in 1974. Many of the changes have been beneficial – the contribution limits have increased from the original annual amount of $1,500 up to $6,000 in 2020 (unchanged from 2019); in 1986 the addition of non-deductible contributions expanded the access … Continue reading Will the SECURE Act Affect You?
Signs of economic weakness are pervasive. Quantitative evidence from economic reports is depicting an obvious economic slowdown. Additionally, qualitative evidence, such as “expert” commentary and recession related media headlines, means the average American hears about an upcoming recession daily. After reading the headlines of poor economic reports and bearish commentary, one would expect equity markets … Continue reading The Bull Stock Market in the Bear Economy
Recency bias is a powerful emotion that leads investors to focus on investing in what is working right now, resulting in the over-allocation to outperforming asset classes and abandonment of recent laggards. This performance chasing leads to poor long-term performance and is counter to our multi‑asset class investing discipline. The past decade has been extremely … Continue reading What Have You Done for Me Lately?
The third quarter was another volatile one for credit markets, with yields across the maturity spectrum falling as markets continue to price in a slowing economic environment. On the short end of the curve, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice this quarter, bringing the Fed Funds target range to 1.75-2.00%. The cut in July … Continue reading Yields Continue to Fall
Starting in 2011, the first wave of “baby-boomers” – Americans born between 1946 and 1964 – reached retirement age. The term tsunami may be more apropos than wave, however. According to Health and Human Services (HHS), more than 10,000 Americans will turn age 65 every day for the next decade1. While turning age 65 does … Continue reading Continuing Care Retirement Communities
In life and in economic cycles, there are key milestones. A key one for the economy was hit August 14, 2019: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was less than 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. In other words, the yield curve “inverted.” The inversion that day was brief and slight, as the 2-year yield was barely above … Continue reading OPCM’s Thoughts on Yield Curve Inversion
Click here to view a PRINT VERSION of this article. Historically, two sectors with consistently slow earnings growth have been utilities and consumer staples. Over the long-term, these two sectors have posted annualized earnings growth of 3% and 5% respectively, below the S&P 500’s 7% earnings growth. Although earnings growth has been slower, and these … Continue reading Safe Is Not Safe Anymore
