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The Bull Stock Market in the Bear Economy

Signs of economic weakness are pervasive.  Quantitative evidence from economic reports is depicting an obvious economic slowdown.  Additionally, qualitative evidence, such as “expert” commentary and recession related media headlines, means the average American hears about an upcoming recession daily.  After reading the headlines of poor economic reports and bearish commentary, one would expect equity markets … Continue reading The Bull Stock Market in the Bear Economy

Yields Continue to Fall

The third quarter was another volatile one for credit markets, with yields across the maturity spectrum falling as markets continue to price in a slowing economic environment. On the short end of the curve, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice this quarter, bringing the Fed Funds target range to 1.75-2.00%. The cut in July … Continue reading Yields Continue to Fall

Safe Is Not Safe Anymore

Click here to view a PRINT VERSION of this article. Historically, two sectors with consistently slow earnings growth have been utilities and consumer staples.  Over the long-term, these two sectors have posted annualized earnings growth of 3% and 5% respectively, below the S&P 500’s 7% earnings growth.  Although earnings growth has been slower, and these … Continue reading Safe Is Not Safe Anymore

Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?

Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. Since 2006, the only inversions investors studied were inversions involving multi-national companies relocating their headquarters and legal residence to countries with lower tax rates.  In January and then again in March, the word inversion meant something else for the first time in 13 years.  In … Continue reading Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?