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Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?

Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. Since 2006, the only inversions investors studied were inversions involving multi-national companies relocating their headquarters and legal residence to countries with lower tax rates.  In January and then again in March, the word inversion meant something else for the first time in 13 years.  In … Continue reading Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?

How I Stopped Worrying About Uncertainty and Learned To Trust the Numbers

Back in 1946, a nuclear physicist working at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Stanislaw Ulam, was convalescing from an illness.  Unable to binge Netflix (as I do when recovering under bed rest) he instead amused himself by playing solitaire.  Ever the mathematician, Ulam began wondering about the statistical probability of a successful solitaire game.  As … Continue reading How I Stopped Worrying About Uncertainty and Learned To Trust the Numbers

What Does the Recent US Stock Market Action Mean for 2019?

The old saying “stock prices follow earnings” was not in effect during 2018.  The S&P 500 delivered outstanding earnings growth of 22% during the year.  However, this impressive earnings growth coincided with the worst performance for the S&P 500 in over 10 years, along with one of the worst single quarters since 1940.  Practically overnight, … Continue reading What Does the Recent US Stock Market Action Mean for 2019?

Seeing Green?

To download a printable version of this article, click here: 201810 OPCM – Marijuana Around this time last year, we wrote an article highlighting the increasing signs of speculation and euphoria we were seeing in the burgeoning cryptocurrency market. Our skepticism had less to do with the merit or potential use of cryptocurrencies, and more … Continue reading Seeing Green?

The Risk Of Investing In One Asset Class

To download a printable version of this article:  201810 OPCM – The Risk Of Investing In One Asset Class For many decades, the best risk-adjusted returns were found using a multi-asset class investing approach.  Historically this discipline, used by most of the top performing large foundations and endowments, enabled investors to achieve equity-like returns with … Continue reading The Risk Of Investing In One Asset Class