Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. At the end of March, the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury was yielding 2.41%. The second quarter saw yields on the […]
Do the Recent Yield Curve Inversions Guarantee a Recession?
Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. Since 2006, the only inversions investors studied were inversions involving multi-national companies relocating their headquarters and legal residence to countries […]
Housing, Homebuilders, and Corrections…
Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. In the ten years since the financial crisis, housing markets have recovered, stock markets have eclipsed their prior highs, and […]
An About Face from the U.S. Federal Reserve
Click here to download a PRINT VERSION of this article. After a volatile end to 2018, interest rates continued their move lower in the first quarter driven by a dramatic […]
How I Stopped Worrying About Uncertainty and Learned To Trust the Numbers
Back in 1946, a nuclear physicist working at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Stanislaw Ulam, was convalescing from an illness. Unable to binge Netflix (as I do when recovering under […]
What Does the Recent US Stock Market Action Mean for 2019?
The old saying “stock prices follow earnings” was not in effect during 2018. The S&P 500 delivered outstanding earnings growth of 22% during the year. However, this impressive earnings growth […]
Sell the News – The US Dollar and Multi-Asset Class Investing
A market saying is to “sell the news”, implying that by the time news is released, it is already priced into an asset’s price. Exhibit A: On January 24, 2018, […]
Universal Life Insurance in a Low Rate Environment
A few years ago, a new client asked me to review a “universal” life insurance policy that she bought in the early 1990’s. The insurance company had recently increased her […]
Credit Markets Showing Great Uncertainty
Bond markets in the fourth quarter experienced a significant amount of volatility as investors attempted to gauge the extent of further Federal Reserve tightening and the likelihood of an economic […]
Seeing Green?
To download a printable version of this article, click here: 201810 OPCM – Marijuana Around this time last year, we wrote an article highlighting the increasing signs of speculation and […]