The Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) is in a tough position. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has fallen dramatically and is now approaching its long-term […]
Tariffs and the Market
Since invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on April 2nd, 2025 (“Liberation Day”), President Trump has overseen the most dramatic shift in U.S. trade policy since the Smoot-Hawley […]
A Test of Independence: Can the Federal Reserve Survive Pressure from the White House?
Fixed Income performance in the first half of the year was solid yet tenuous. Interest rate volatility hit a two-year high in April as the threat of tariffs and trade […]
Three Reasons Why the Fed Continues to Be Late
Last month, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors made the splashy announcement of a 0.50% cut to the Federal Funds rate, lowering the target rate to 5.00% from a peak […]
The 2024 Election: Taxes, the Economy, and the Market
As we approach the November elections, uncertainty looms over the markets and the economy. While elections always bring a degree of unpredictability, this year’s contest between Vice President Harris and […]
The Cheapest Most Expensive Index in History
Is this arguably the cheapest most expensive U.S. equities market in history? We examine this extreme investing environment. Entering 2024, investors were generally positive about the prospect of a solid […]
2023: The Year of Inflections
Entering 2023, the consensus outlook was bearish for most asset classes. Inflation would remain stubbornly high. Interest rates would continue to rise and remain higher for much longer. Corporate earnings […]
Mid-Year Asset Class Stoplight
How has Osborne Partners’ asset-class positioning changed since the October 2022 lows? Markets surprised the consensus view in the first half of 2023. Entering the year, the common view for […]
First Republic Bank – “It WAS a Privilege to Serve You”
An analysis of the bank’s collapse, the implications for its clients, the ongoing risks to other banks, and the broader market and economic implications. Early on the morning of May […]
Known Unknowns
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns… “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We […]